defmodule Glicko do alias __MODULE__.{ Player, GameResult, } @epsilon 0.0000001 @default_system_constant 0.8 @doc """ Generate a new Rating from an existing rating and a series of results. """ @spec new_rating(player :: Player.t, results :: list(GameResult.t), sys_constant :: float) :: Player.t def new_rating(player, results, sys_constant \\ @default_system_constant) def new_rating(player = %Player{version: :v1}, results, sys_constant) do player |> Player.to_v2 |> do_new_rating(results, sys_constant) |> Player.to_v1 end def new_rating(player = %Player{version: :v2}, results, sys_constant) do do_new_rating(player, results, sys_constant) end defp do_new_rating(player = %Player{version: :v2}, results, sys_constant) do results = Enum.map(results, fn result -> opponent = Player.to_v2(result.opponent) %{ score: result.score, opponent: opponent, opponent_rating_deviation_g: calc_g(opponent.rating_deviation), } end) ctx = Map.new |> Map.put(:system_constant, sys_constant) |> Map.put(:results, results) |> Map.put(:player, player) |> Map.put(:player_rating_deviation_squared, :math.pow(player.rating_deviation, 2)) # Step 3 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :variance_estimate, calc_variance_estimate(ctx)) # Step 4 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :delta, calc_delta(ctx)) # Step 5.1 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :alpha, calc_alpha(ctx)) # Step 5.2 {initial_a, initial_b} = iterative_algorithm_initial(ctx) ctx = Map.put(ctx, :initial_a, initial_a) ctx = Map.put(ctx, :initial_b, initial_b) # Step 5.3 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :initial_fa, calc_f(ctx, ctx.initial_a)) ctx = Map.put(ctx, :initial_fb, calc_f(ctx, ctx.initial_b)) # Step 5.4 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :a, iterative_algorithm_body( ctx, ctx.initial_a, ctx.initial_b, ctx.initial_fa, ctx.initial_fb )) # Step 5.5 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :new_player_volatility, calc_new_player_volatility(ctx)) # Step 6 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :prerating_period, calc_prerating_period(ctx)) # Step 7 ctx = Map.put(ctx, :new_player_rating_deviation, calc_new_player_rating_deviation(ctx)) ctx = Map.put(ctx, :new_player_rating, calc_new_player_rating(ctx)) Player.new_v2([ rating: ctx.new_player_rating, rating_deviation: ctx.new_player_rating_deviation, volatility: ctx.new_player_volatility, ]) end # Calculation of the estimated variance of the player's rating based on game outcomes defp calc_variance_estimate(%{player: player, results: results}) do Enum.reduce(results, 0.0, fn result, acc -> tmp_e = calc_e(player, result) acc + :math.pow(result.opponent_rating_deviation_g, 2) * tmp_e * (1 - tmp_e) end) |> :math.pow(-1) end defp calc_delta(ctx) do calc_results_effect(ctx) * ctx.variance_estimate end defp calc_f(ctx, x) do :math.exp(x) * (:math.pow(ctx.delta, 2) - :math.exp(x) - ctx.player_rating_deviation_squared - ctx.variance_estimate) / (2 * :math.pow(ctx.player_rating_deviation_squared + ctx.variance_estimate + :math.exp(x), 2)) - (x - ctx.alpha) / :math.pow(ctx.system_constant, 2) end defp calc_alpha(%{player: player}) do :math.log(:math.pow(player.volatility, 2)) end defp calc_new_player_volatility(%{a: a}) do :math.exp(a/2) end defp calc_results_effect(%{player: player, results: results}) do Enum.reduce(results, 0.0, fn result, acc -> acc + result.opponent_rating_deviation_g * (result.score - calc_e(player, result)) end) end defp calc_new_player_rating(ctx) do ctx.player.rating + :math.pow(ctx.new_player_rating_deviation, 2) * calc_results_effect(ctx) end defp calc_new_player_rating_deviation(ctx) do 1/:math.sqrt(1/:math.pow(ctx.prerating_period, 2) + 1/ctx.variance_estimate) end defp calc_prerating_period(ctx) do :math.sqrt((:math.pow(ctx.new_player_volatility, 2) + ctx.player_rating_deviation_squared)) end defp iterative_algorithm_initial(ctx) do initial_a = ctx.alpha initial_b = if :math.pow(ctx.delta, 2) > ctx.player_rating_deviation_squared + ctx.variance_estimate do :math.log(:math.pow(ctx.delta, 2) - ctx.player_rating_deviation_squared - ctx.variance_estimate) else ctx.alpha - calc_k(ctx, 1) * ctx.system_constant end {initial_a, initial_b} end defp iterative_algorithm_body(ctx, a, b, fa, fb) do if abs(b - a) > @epsilon do c = a + (a - b) * fa / (fb - fa) fc = calc_f(ctx, c) {a, fa} = if fc * fb < 0 do {b, fb} else {a, fa / 2} end iterative_algorithm_body(ctx, a, c, fa, fc) else a end end defp calc_k(ctx, k) do if calc_f(ctx, (ctx.alpha - k * ctx.system_constant)) < 0 do calc_k(ctx, k + 1) else k end end # g function defp calc_g(rating_deviation) do 1 / :math.sqrt(1 + 3 * :math.pow(rating_deviation, 2) / :math.pow(:math.pi, 2)) end # E function defp calc_e(player, result) do 1 / (1 + :math.exp(-1 * result.opponent_rating_deviation_g * (player.rating - result.opponent.rating))) end end